Gene Seymour
Newsday
WHAT DO I know? If you'd asked me on New Year's Day (and some did), who had the mightiest mojo going into this year's Academy Awards, I would
have said immediately "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring." It was putting up impressive numbers at the box office and scoring well with the critics. Nothing makes Hollywood feel cozier than a consensus success. At the very least, both best picture and best director (for Peter Jackson) seemed inevitable.
Six weeks have passed and my early assurances have come to grief. Oscar nominations will be announced Tuesday, and while "Lord of the Rings" will surely reap a bounty of technical nods, along with the aforementioned best picture and director slots, I no longer believe that Destiny rides with the Hobbits.
Now? Well, a cursory scan of the show business pundits discloses an apparent edge for Ron Howard's "A Beautiful Mind" that widened after the biopic of schizophrenic genius John Nash reaped most of the big prizes at last month's Golden Globe Awards. Howard is likewise the prohibitive favorite to win this year's Directors Guild of America prize that will be announced March 9 - and, by implication, the directing Oscar - given that Robert Altman ("Gosford Park") and David Lynch ("Mulholland Dr.") were conspicuously - and dubiously - absent from the DGA nominees announced two weeks ago.
But since December, when the National Board of Review made its head-turning pick of "Moulin Rouge!" as the best film of 2001, there's been this low-boiling but unrelenting buildup for Baz Luhrmann's flamboyant mutant of a movie musical. The odds of a best picture Oscar going to any musical, especially one as goofy as "Moulin Rouge!," are narrow indeed, but the gaudy thing refuses to go away. "Black Hawk Down" also may begin creeping up toward the front of the pack, with its pyrotechnical effects posing a potentially stiff challenge to "Fellowship of the Ring."
However the nominations fall, there's still a possibility that the minds of 5,739 academy voters could shift at least half a dozen times between now and late March, when the tallying ends. (The Oscars will be presented March 24.) It may come down, in the end, to which of these movies makes for better television.
Any voter with a VCR or DVD player is deluged with Oscar-eligible films, and they are more likely to view the nominees on the small screen than schlep to the neighborhood multiplex. This situation appears to offer clear advantages to such tightly framed dramas as " A Beautiful Mind" and "In the Bedroom" over "Lord of the Rings," "Black Hawk Down" and grander, rip-snorting movie-movies.
Or so the more misanthropic industry observers have claimed in the last decade. When "Shakespeare in Love" overpowered "Saving Private Ryan" three years ago for best picture, credit was heavily applied to Miramax's scorched-earth campaign. But some writers also said that "Shakespeare" enjoyed an advantage over "Ryan" by being more living room-friendly. Such trends, these writers claimed, put more nails in the coffin of true cinema, whatever that may be.
I remain underwhelmed - or just whelmed - by such apocalyptic forecasts. Though I'd rather see "The Philadelphia Story," "McCabe and Mrs. Miller" or "Blade Runner" in a theater, I'm just as susceptible to their charms on a 22-inch screen. It may be true that, at home, one is less inclined to let a movie wash over the senses the way one does at a theater. (That phone call could be an emergency at school. That leaky faucet won't fix itself. ) But I think that if anything, home video releases to the audience some of the autonomy once enjoyed only by the moviemakers themselves. We can isolate a single set piece, repeat it over and over if we want to see how it works or doesn't. And if, indeed, the proliferation of DVD-VHS screeners favors the more intimately staged motion picture, how to explain the triumph of "Gladiator" a year ago?
Having seen "Moulin Rouge!" and "In the Bedroom" in both a theater and a living room, I'm no smarter about assessing their chances for nominations by the academy rank and file than I was during the holidays. As far as the former is concerned, I can tell you that it went over big with a senior citizen and a teenager, who represent audiences more likely to go to the theaters than not. The latter was screened in a living room darkened to come as close to a theatrical experience as possible. For me, it was more revelatory and affecting the second time than when I'd first seen it in a multiplex.
But, as I said, what do I know? Months ago, I figured Tilda Swinton was a mortal lock for a best actress nomination for "The Deep End." Now she seems totally, egregiously forgotten. I also thought that "Gosford Park" would provide the academy with the excuse it needed to give Altman what amounts to a tantamount Oscar for career achievement. But the DGA snub seems to stick that theory in the ashtray. It may be worth noting here that "The Deep End" and "Gosford Park" come across very well on TV.
Odds on Oscar
Lou Lumenick
New York Post
There's one sure bet when Oscar nominations are announced Tuesday morning: There will be lots of surprises.
Here's a look at the current front-runners and the odds I give them - based on interviews with industry insiders and surveys of Internet buzz - for going the distance to the podium when statuettes are handed out next month.
BEST PICTURE
1. "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring," New Line
2. "A Beautiful Mind," Universal/DreamWorks
3. "Moulin Rouge," Twentieth Century Fox
4. "In the Bedroom," GreeneStreet/Good Machine/Miramax
5. "Gosford Park," USA Pictures
6. "Black Hawk Down," Bruckheimer/Revolution/Columbia
7. "Memento," Newmarket
ODDS
1. A sure thing, 2-1
2. A sure thing, 3-1
3. A sure thing, 5-1
4. Likely, 8-1
5. A toss-up, 10-1
6. A toss-up, 10-1
7. A long shot, 15-1
HOW WE FIGURE IT
1. Oscar loves epics. "Lord" will get lots of nominations, including ones for director Peter Jackson and supporting actor Ian McKellen, as well as in technical categories.
2. The Academy favors troubled geniuses. It owes Ron Howard one after "Apollo 13." Charges subject was whitewashed haven't hurt business.
3. Grassroots campaign by director Baz Luhrmann reached influential Hollywood elders as well as hip youngsters. Expect lots of technical noms.
4. Mighty Miramax put big bucks behind the little movie that could get a nomination - but likely won't go all the way.
5. A favorite of actors and Anglophiles, who may reward director Robert Altman, despite his recent anti-American remarks.
6. Somalian war drama benefits from nation's newly militant mood. But it suffers from paucity of coherent drama or performances.
7. Well-reviewed thriller grossed $25 million - but tiny distrib hasn't opened its wallets for campaign.
BEST ACTOR
1. Denzel Washington, "Training Day"
2. Russell Crowe, "A Beautiful Mind"
3. Sean Penn, "I Am Sam"
4. Billy Bob Thornton, "Monster's Ball"
5. Tom Wilkinson, "In the Bedroom"
6. Gene Hackman, "The Royal Tenenbaums"
ODDS
1. A sure thing, 2-1
2. A sure thing, 5-2
3. A possibility, 5-1
4. A possibility, 7-1
5. A possibility, 9-1
6. A possibility, 12-1
HOW WE FIGURE IT
1. Going against type is always a good Oscar ploy. Also, there's a guilt factor because the Academy passed him over for "The Hurricane."
2. It's a change of pace for Crowe. Besides, mentally challenged roles are Oscar catnip. But last year's win works against him on Oscar night.
3. Penn's a favorite of fellow actors, and he was nominated for 1999's "Sweet and Lowdown." Here, he plays another mentally defective character.
4. It's hard to overlook busy Billy Bob, who was better in "The Man Who Wasn't There" - but this one's got the buzz.
5. This Shakespeare vet previously couldn't get arrested in Tinseltown, but the buzz is he's better than co-star Spacek.
6. Hackman was great as the paterfamilias in this ensemble piece, but the part falls just short of a leading role.
BEST ACTRESS
1. Sissy Spacek, "In the Bedroom"
2. Judi Dench, "Iris"
3. Halle Berry, "Monster's Ball"
4. Renee Zellweger, "Bridget Jones's Diary"
5. Nicole Kidman, "Moulin Rouge" and "The Others"
6. Naomi Watts, "Mulholland Drive"
ODDS
1. A sure thing, 3-2
2. A sure thing, 5-1
3. A sure thing, 7-1
4. A possibility, 9-1
5. A possibility for either - 10-1, 12-1, respectively
6. A long shot, 15-1
HOW WE FIGURE IT
1. It's called wiring the field. She's got five prior nominations and one win. And this performance has won just about every award in sight.
2. There's nothing like a three-time-nominated (with one win) dame - playing a famous writer with Alzheimer's.
3. Thanks to an eye-popping sex scene, Berry's is one of the year's most talked-about, if least seen, performances.
4. She was better in 2000's "Nurse Betty" but didn't get nominated. Plus, "Bridget" was actually moderately popular.
5. Tuesday's big question: Does Nicole split her vote and thus not get nominated for either role?
6. This Aussie "newcomer" (with 12 years' film experience) is the mostly likely beneficiary if countrywoman Kidman gets snubbed.
Oscar categories we'd like to see
Colin Covert
Star Tribune
I's only 8 pounds of gold-plated tin, although it's potentially worth millions. Winning an Oscar can move an actor from face-in-the-crowd to star, or from star to superstar, and it can add a fortune to a movie's box-office receipts.
Yet what does an Academy Award guarantee? Not steady work. James Cameron, Roberto Benigni and Quentin Tarentino have wallowed in inactivity since winning their statuettes. Kim Basinger, Jack Palance, Marlee Matlin and Marisa Tomei flamed out after their moment in the flashbulbs.
Nevertheless, lust for the prize can cloud men's minds. Think of Jim Carrey's maudlin "serious" turn in "The Majestic." Or MGM's unlikely best-actress campaign for Reese Witherspoon in "Legally Blonde." As the nominations race entered its final days, some studios were mounting ad onslaughts costing more than $1,500 for each of the 6,000-plus Oscar voters. Miramax's campaign for the domestic drama "In the Bedroom" reportedly cost several times the film's $1.5 million budget.
The spending is especially fierce because this year's competition is as murky as any in memory. "The Lord of the Rings" is all but certain to win a best-picture nod and basket of major nominations, with its academy-pleasing mix of solid professionalism, epic scope, literary pedigree, visual pageantry, critical praise and blockbuster ticket sales.
Other strong contenders to land in the best-picture final five are "A Beautiful Mind," "Black Hawk Down," "In the Bedroom" and "Moulin Rouge," with "Gosford Park," "Shrek," "Amelie" and "Memento" also in the running.
Beyond this, not much seems certain. The serious handicapping will begin when the actual nominees are announced Tuesday morning.
Will this be the first year with two black best-actor contenders, Denzel Washington for "Training Day" and Will Smith for "Ali"? Will Russell Crowe get his third best-actor nomination in as many years? Will the new feature-animation Oscar hurt "Shrek" in the best-picture race?
Until then, it's time to think outside the box with some new categories of our own devising. For starters, why not recognize bad work? There's so much more of it.
Think of the discussion that could spring out of a Most Gratuitous Nudity category. Which show of skin did less to advance the plot: Halle Berry's cleavage in "Swordfish" or David Duchovny's posterior in "Evolution"? Worst accent: Nicolas Cage's comic-opera Italian in "Captain Corelli's Mandolin" or Kevin Costner's Elvis-speak in "3000 Miles to Graceland"? Worst Interspecies Love Scene: Tom Green and the elephant in "Freddy Got Fingered" or Mark Wahlberg and Helena Bonham Carter in "Planet of the Apes"?
Feel free to borrow any of these ideas, academy members. We always feel cheated when the ceremony runs short.
Best acting ensemble
"Black Hawk Down"
"Gosford Park"
"Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"
"Ocean's Eleven"
"Royal Tenenbaums"
Best film based on fact
"A Beautiful Mind"
"Black Hawk Down"
"Ali"
"Iris"
"Chopper"
"Pearl Harbor"
Best use of Minnesota talent
Josh Hartnett in "O"
Joel and Ethan Coen's "The Man Who Wasn't There"
Hartnett in "Black Hawk Down"
Rachael Leigh Cook in "Josie & the Pussycats"
Gov. Jesse Ventura in "Joe Somebody"
Hartnett and Cook in "Blow Dry"
Most confusing plot
"Vanilla Sky"
"Memento"
"Mulholland Dr."
"Pootie Tang"
"The Caveman's Valentine"
Guiltiest pleasure
"3,000 Miles to Graceland"
"Swordfish"
"Kiss of the Dragon"
"Pearl Harbor"
"The One"
Best dysfunctional family film
"I Am Sam"
"A.I."
"In the Bedroom"
"The Royal Tenenbaums"
"Life as a House"
Worst comedy
"The Animal"
"See Spot Run"
"Tomcats"
"Crocodile Dundee in L.A."
"Saving Silverman"
Best trend of the year
Five Josh Hartnett movies
No Robin Williams movies
Five Gene Hackman movies
Probably no more Tom Green movies
Return of the well-made robbery movie ("Heist," "The Score," "Ocean's Eleven")
Best performance in a bad movie
Jude Law, "A.I."
Cate Blanchett, "The Shipping News"
Kevin Spacey, "K-Pax"
Christopher Walken, "Joe Dirt"
Ray Liotta, "Blow"
Best demonstration of dramatic range
Denzel Washington (scary), "Training Day"
Russell Crowe (timid), "A Beautiful Mind"
Ben Kingsley (volcanic), "Sexy Beast"
Tom Cruise (ugly), "Vanilla Sky"
Ben Affleck (new hairstyle), "Pearl Harbor"
Worst sequel
"Hannibal"
"The Mummy Returns"
"Dr. Dolittle 2"
"Rush Hour 2"
"Crocodile Dundee in L.A."
Best performance by a lump of inanimate matter
The Ring, "Lord of the Rings"
Angelina Jolie's amplified pectorals, "Tomb Raider"
Billy Bob Thornton's hairpiece, "The Man Who Wasn't There"
James Whitmore's eyebrows, "The Majestic"
Mariah Carey, "Glitter"
Best overweight performance
by a normally svelte actor
Gwyneth Paltrow, "Shallow Hal"
Renee Zellweger, "Bridget Jones's Diary"
Julia Roberts, "America's Sweethearts"
Alan Cumming, "Josie and the Pussycats"
Eric Bana, "Chopper"
And the nominees this Tuesday should be...
Mary Pols
Miami Herald
The ballots are probably already counted, but more than half the fun of Oscar time is the guessing game. Come early Tuesday morning, when the nominations are announced, all this speculation will be for naught, but in the meantime, here are my picks as well as my best guess as to the actual nominees.
Actors
Should be Nominated:
Tom Wilkinson for "In the Bedroom": Everyone talks about Sissy Spacek's performance in this movie about a couple coping with the death of their child, but Wilkinson more than pulls his weight playing her husband. He quietly let us into his character's heart, to its lust, longing for lost youth, its anger and its thirst for revenge.
Billy Bob Thornton for "Monster's Ball": In his third good movie of the year, this charismatic chameleon plays a lifelong racist who regards his bias as perfectly fine until he is attracted to a black woman (Halle Berry). Tales of redemption tend to the obvious, but Thornton's integrity made this believable.
Gene Hackman for "The Royal Tenenbaums": Because Hackman is such an effortless actor, we unfairly tend to take him for granted. His Royal Tenenbaum was a shiftless rascal, prone to saying outrageously tactless things, but Hackman made him irresistible.
Russell Crowe for "A Beautiful Mind": Crowe was flawless as schizophrenic John Nash, from that first frame where his eye twitches almost imperceptibly to that last triumphant moment. Whatever you think of Crowe, it's hard to dispute the basic truth: he seems to never falter.
Will Smith for "Ali": I had my doubts when I heard about this casting move. But Smith was barely recognizable as Muhammad Ali; fierce, funny and capable of taking and giving a punch. It was the role of a lifetime and he lived up to it.
And the Academy will say: I think we'll be in sync here, except on the matter of Wilkinson. He'll likely get bumped in favor of Denzel Washington for "Training Day." His campy performance, like the movie, teetered on the absurd. But the Academy adores him.
There are dark horses, though. Benjamin Bratt was great in "Pinero," but Academy voters aren't going to be able to sit through that amateur dreck. They might eat up the corn dog that is "I Am Sam," and nominate Sean Penn. Guy Pearce could pop up for "Memento," but his chances probably aren't any better than Anthony LaPaglia's for "Lantana."
But the ultimate dark horse is Haley Joel Osment, especially with influential New York Times' critic A.O. Scott's continued, and baffling, insistence that "A.I. Artificial Intelligence" was a great movie.
Actresses
Should be nominated:
Sissy Spacek for "In the Bedroom": The former Oscar queen vaulted back into the spotlight with a wrenching performance as a grieving mother you couldn't quite like, who reminded us that grief is rarely big and showy, but instead steadily percolates into a pot of misery.
Nicole Kidman for "Moulin Rouge": As long as she gets nominated, I don't really care whether it's for this crazy musical or "The Others," the tense, classy horror movie that saved summer from sheer stupidity. But Kidman was so wildly brave in "Moulin Rouge" that it gets the edge in my book.
Halle Berry for "Monster's Ball": The most unexpected performance of the year. The last time we saw her on the big screen, all she was doing was flashing her assets at Hugh Jackman. Then along comes this difficult movie about racism, death row and bad parenting and there's Berry, so purely focused on her chronically unhappy working-class character that it seems like "Swordfish" was 10 years ago.
Judi Dench for "Iris": Yeah, I was kind of sick of the perfect Dame, too. "Chocolat"? Poo. But this time, she's oh-so-deserving. Her rendition of acclaimed writer Iris Murdoch's descent into Alzheimer's was the most ruinously evocative performance of the year.
Renee Zellweger for "Bridget Jones's Diary": Why? Because good comedy is hard enough, but comedy with a heart is even harder and our favorite bag-of-bones Texan delivered big time. She did the accent, the weight gain and most important, she imbued messy, screwed-up Bridget with unexpected poignancy.
And the Academy will say: Again, I think I'm seeing eye to eye with the Academy, with one major exception. I think they'll pass on Zellweger in favor of Audrey Tautou for "Amelie."
Why? Because you can never underestimate Miramax when it comes to seducing Academy voters. If they can get an undeserved nomination last year for Juliette Binoche in "Chocolat," they ought to be able to buy, er, secure one for Tautou's delightful, performance as a naughty Parisian with a heart of gold.
With perhaps the firmest grip on irony ever seen in a teen-ager, Thora Birch couldn't have been better in "Ghost World," but did voters see that little gem?
Tilda Swinton was fine in "The Deep End," but Academy voters may find her too intimidating to embrace. "Mulholland Drive's" Naomi Watts is probably the fastest dark horse of this race.
Best supporting actor
Should be nominated:
Steve Buscemi for "Ghost World": Everybody loves Buscemi as the bad guy, but under Terry Zwigoff's direction, he became a surprisingly good good guy. His Seymour started out a record collecting geek and in the end, was someone we wanted to protect.
Brian Cox for "L.I.E.": His portrayal of a pedophile transcended all stereotypes. He hated himself as much as we hated him, yet he couldn't stop himself. And watching his psychological seduction unfold, we could not only understand why it worked, but see the vulnerabilities within him. A terrifyingly enlightening performance, but the Academy isn't going to want to touch it.
Ian McKellen for "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring": As Gandalf, he made us want to shoulder our burden and head into the wilds of Mordor along with Frodo, to do right by this lover of Middle-Earth. McKellen is such a spicy, truthful actor that in his hands Gandalf became someone we truly couldn't bear to say goodbye to.
Ben Kingsley for "Sexy Beast": The movie came out many moons ago, but can anyone who saw this one-last-heist flick shake the image of Kingsley, his bald head looking like a weapon, sitting bolt upright, spewing invectives like a small steam engine in tight clothes? Talk about the anti-Gandhi.
Brad Pitt for "Ocean's Eleven:" It's never going to happen, because the guy is too much of a movie star, but just for fun, I'm going to throw it out there. Consider the way he played off George Clooney, carefully staying within the parameters of second fiddle, but still lending so much energy to the picture that we simply couldn't have done without him.
And the Academy will say: I'm betting they pick Kingsley and Buscemi, but then our opinions will diverge and they'll opt for:
Jim Broadbent for "Iris": Truly, his role in "Iris" was leading, not supporting. But his tender performance deserves recognition.
Jon Voight for "Ali": We didn't know Bundini Brown the way we knew Howard Cosell, so Voight gets the nod.
Carl Reiner for "Ocean's Eleven": On the grounds that the Academy likes to be different from the Hollywood Foreign Press, that age and length of career matter, and that he was very, very good.
Other dark horses include Jamie Foxx for "Ali," who I thought was great, but if I couldn't find room for him, I doubt the Academy will. Same with Jude Law, impeccable in "A.I."
Best supporting actress
Should be nominated:
Jennifer Connelly for "A Beautiful Mind": It's the wrong place for her, but never mind; the nomination die seems to have been cast with her Golden Globe win in the supporting category. Having faced off against Crowe without seeming the least bit perturbed by the challenge, she deserves recognition.
Maggie Smith for "Gosford Park": It's hard to steal a movie from 30 of the most skilled actors in all of England, but Smith managed. The skill with which she delivers a murmured aside just slays me.
Marisa Tomei for "In the Bedroom": Her Maine accent was wrong, but everything else was right. Her single mom character was so nuanced we were never sure how to feel about her: whether to trust or doubt her, to fall in love with her or flee from certain trouble.
Kate Winslet for "Iris": It's always been easy for Winslet to convince us that she's an uninhibited romantic, but here she makes a great leap, convincing us that she's a young Iris Murdoch, one of the most intellectual, and incidentally least glamorous, writers of the 20th century.
Cate Blanchett for "Bandits": On the grounds that she made us believe she could love two very different men at the same time (and that Bruce Willis was worthy). The energy source that made "Bandits" work, she did slapstick and sexy and managed to be funny at both.
And the Academy will say: I think the Academy will be with me on Connelly, Smith, Winslet and Tomei. I'm betting though that they pass on Blanchett in favor of Cameron Diaz for "Vanilla Sky." So I hated the movie, but Diaz was strong, and she did get a Golden Globe nomination.
But never discount Academy favorite Michelle Pfeiffer, the best thing in the icky "I Am Sam," or Helen Mirren or Emily Watson, both great in "Gosford Park."
Best director
Should be nominated:
Robert Altman for "Gosford Park": Juggling multiple story lines and dozens of characters, Altman delivered his best in a decade, a sharp and smart comedy. Dissect one scene of "Gosford Park" and you realize what kind of task Altman had to keep track of his characters, let alone to make the picture sing the way it does.
Todd Field for "In the Bedroom": Without compromises, money or experience, he made a perfectly paced movie, ripe with incredible performances. Thank heavens the audience is listening.
Peter Jackson for "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring": "The Fellowship of the Ring" is box-office gold, but it's also soulful, and Jackson deserves recognition for having the faith, imagination and stamina to pull it off.
Wes Anderson for "The Royal Tenenbaums": Because his fantasy of old New York living on in modernity was distinctly his vision, every mannered bit of it. He drew memorable performances from his big cast and proved that success hasn't dampened his spirit or his eccentric bent.
Jean Pierre Jeunet for "Amelie": Yes, his version of Paris was scrubbed of all graffiti; yes, it was over the top. But it was also one of this year's most eloquent endorsements of humanity, and the credit goes to Jeunet, who wrote and directed it.
And the Academy will say: Yes to Altman and Jackson, but after that, I think they'll go for:
Ridley Scott for "Black Hawk Down." If he could get nominated for glossy trash like "Gladiator," he's got to be a favorite for the much-better "Black Hawk Down."
Ron Howard for "A Beautiful Mind." Sealed when "A Beautiful Mind" won the Golden Globe.
Baz Luhrmann for "Moulin Rouge," because he was the force behind the forceful "Moulin Rouge." Plus, this way, Hollywood gets to pretend it's cutting edge.
The talented Field is probably going to be out because he's a first-time director, and the Academy doesn't like that (jealous). Ditto for Christopher Nolan, who did a stellar job with "Memento."
David Lynch got tons of critical acclaim for "Mulholland Drive," but it's far from the weirdmaster's best work. Reaction to Spielberg's "A.I.: Artificial Intelligence" was mixed, but can the Academy ignore a film of his, even if it's flawed?
Best picture
Should be nominated:
"The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring": In a year when most literary adaptations made us wish we'd stayed home with a good book, this one made us feel like jumping up and down.
"Gosford Park": Masterful, complex, seamless, Robert Altman's whodunit is a flashback to bygone eras. Set in the 1920s, it's got the sophistication of the 1940s and the excitement of the 1970s. When people yammer on about how great American movies used to be, this is what they mean.
"In the Bedroom": Pure and perfect acting and directing, enough real emotion to get those tears rolling without making us feel manipulated.
"Monster's Ball": Because everything about it was just intensely right. But it was so much of a small actor's movie, like "You Can Count on Me," that the Academy will doubtless overlook it.
"The Royal Tenenbaums": I was torn until I realized this is the movie I most want to see again. The best ensemble cast this side of "Gosford Park." And it made me irrationally happy in much the same way "Amelie" did. But I'm counting on "Amelie" for best foreign picture.
And the Academy will say: I've got a bad feeling they will pass on "Gosford Park," but I'm going to have faith they'll recognize "The Fellowship of the Ring" and "In the Bedroom." After that, I think my choices are out the window and replaced by:
"A Beautiful Mind": By no means a bad movie, although certainly not to the liking of the black turtleneck set. Featured great acting from Crowe and a clever plot twist. But this sanitized version of John Nash's life - no divorce, no gay affairs - is still not Oscar-worthy.
"Black Hawk Down:" With the current mood of patriotism, Ridley Scott's telling of the ill-fated American military intervention in Somalia only had to be decent to be nominated. Instead, it turned out to be visually and emotionally exciting.
"Shrek:" Even with the new animated category, I think this one will crop up in contention for best picture, if only because it was so deeply loved by audiences. "Monsters, Inc." was better, but my money is on "Shrek."
Still, some dark horses to keep in mind are the three M's: "Memento," which really excited audiences, "Mulholland Drive" and "Moulin Rouge."
'Mind', 'Rings' will be front runners
Denver Post
When the Oscar nominations are announced Tuesday morning, "A Beautiful Mind" and "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" will be the front-runners.
"Beautiful Mind" probably will have more high-profile awards than "Lord" - best picture, Ron Howard as best director, Russell Crowe as best actor, Jennifer Connelly as supporting actress, Akiva Goldsman for his adapted screenplay.
But "Lord" will be strong in the crafts categories, as well as probably receiving nominations for best picture, director (Peter Jackson), and perhaps supporting-actor for Ian McKellen's wily turn as the wizard Gandalf.
The reason you (and your dog) probably already know this is because Tuesday's Oscar nominations are preceded by an ever-growing plethora of movie awards and nominations, from the American Film Institute, Broadcast Critics Association, the Golden Globes, British Academy of Film and Television Arts, Screen Actors Guild, Directors Guild of America, Producers Guild of America and more. (The Oscars will be handed out in a prime-time broadcast March 24.)
As a result, tracking "Beautiful Mind's" and "Lord of the Rings' " award-season successes is like tracking the U.S. military campaign in Afghanistan. Victory after victory after victory. So by the time the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts & Sciences checks in on Tuesday with its nominations, these films' supremacy will seem anticlimactic.
But beyond those two, things get confusing. A number of films, actors and directors have split various preliminary awards and nominations, so there are many candidates but few with overwhelming momentum.
On top of that, since 2001 was a weak year for Hollywood, the Academy's 5,745 voters may be willing to nominate small, independent films for major awards. On the other hand, they may want to make a post-Sept. 11 statement about the cultural contribution of Hollywood - especially given how hated it is by the terrorists who attacked America - by concentrating on big-studio releases.
It's worth remembering the entire Academy membership doesn't vote on every nomination; the directors' branch nominates directors, actors choose actors, writers choose writers, etc. All nominate the best-picture finalists, however.
That's why the guild nominations are important, but not infallible, indicators of Oscar nominations. (Memberships overlap but are not the same.) When the Directors Guild failed to nominate Robert Altman for "Gosford Park," after he'd won Golden Globe and AFI awards, it sent out shock waves. So did the Screen Actors Guild's slight of "Ali's" Will Smith.
But here are my best guesses on the major categories:
Best picture
Beyond "Lord of the Rings" and "Beautiful Mind," the other film with the best chance in this category is Todd Field's independently produced "In the Bedroom." It's a wrenching and tough-minded - and extremely intelligent - adult drama about a Maine family struggling to overcome tragedy. Anything but sentimental, and a major hit with urban audiences, it appears to be a movie that Academy voters recognize as important.
"Moulin Rouge" seems a lock for a spot, also, perhaps more because Academy voters desperately want musicals to be commercially viable again than because they like the payoffs of Baz Luhrmann's audacious, all-spectacle-all-the-time approach.
For the fifth slot, two very different pictures seem to have a decent chance. "Black Hawk Down," Ridley Scott's ultra-realistic, horrifyingly assaultive depiction of a true firefight involving outnumbered U.S. soldiers and an armed mob in Mogadishu, Somalia, in 1993 has timeliness on its side. But it's all battle with only minimal story and characterization - so Academy members have to accept it on its terms to nominate it.
And while "Gosford Park" is somewhat anachronistic - an American director's look at the English-class system circa the 1930s - it is such a well-written, -directed and -acted film that it may win a nomination.
Best actor
Two actors appear assured of nominations - Russell Crowe and "Training Day's" Denzel Washington, whose against-type performance as a bad cop has won respect from even the people who dislike the violent, exploitative movie.
While "In the Bedroom's" Tom Wilkinson gave the year's best performance, the British actor is such a non-star that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association didn't nominate him for a Golden Globe, presumably figuring he was of little use in getting their broadcast higher ratings. But there seems no way the Academy's acting branch can overlook him.
Twice-nominated Sean Penn is benefiting from "I Am Sam's" late-breaking popularity. He plays a mentally handicapped single father. His Screen Actors Guild nomination should help Penn's chances.
"Ali" has not been a hit, so Will Smith's well-prepared, carefully observed and nonimitative performance as Muhammad Ali may get overlooked. But I suspect his hard work, including physical training, will pay off. If it doesn't, watch for Kevin Kline to sneak in for his performance as a dying architect in "Life As a House," as he received a Screen Actors Guild nomination for it.
Best actress
Sissy Spacek's work with "In the Bedroom's" Wilkinson was outstanding, unexpected and unmelo-
dramatic. Halle Berry's turn as an impoverished, poorly educated single mom (her husband has been executed) in "Monster's Ball" was revelatory. Her heated sexual encounter with Billy Bob Thornton could have been distracting, but they make it poignant.
Nicole Kidman is going to get nominated, but whether it's for the lesser role in the more heavily hyped film, "Moulin Rouge," or the finer, more subtle performance in "The Others" is a question mark. And I believe Scottish actress Tilda Swinton's haunted, tightly controlled turn as an American housewife trying to protect her gay son from blackmail in "The Deep End" will not be overlooked.
For the fifth slot, "Iris' " Judi Dench - already an Oscar winner and a multiple nominee - seems headed for a nomination for playing the Alzheimer's-stricken writer Iris Murdoch.
Best supporting actor
Ian McKellen's performance in "Lord of the Rings" gives the fantasy its soul. And the normally gentle Ben Kingsley's riveting, frightening turn as a psychopathic gangster in "Sexy Beast" is unforgettable. As Dench's scared, devoted, intellectual husband, John Bayley, Jim Broadbent gives a strong and tender - but never weak - performance.
Beyond those big three, it's truly a mystery where the Academy's final nominations will fall. My guess is Steve Buscemi will get one for his fine work as a lonely and emotionally fragile record collector in "Ghost World." And Gene Hackman, so delightfully cranky and cheerfully malicious in "The Royal Tenenbaums," would be a good bet although there's confusion over whether his is a lead or supporting performance. If he doesn't get nominated, watch for "The Man Who Wasn't There's" lawyer Tony Shalhoub.
Best supporting actress
As the conflicted but dedicated wife of a schizophrenic genius in "A Beautiful Mind," Jennifer Connelly's performance already has attracted huge acclaim. When Universal Pictures mistakenly submitted her name to the Screen Actors Guild in the "best actress" category, she got nominated, anyway. So she's a sure bet here.
So, too, is "Gosford Park's" Maggie Smith as the crusty and acid-tongued Constance, a Victorian woman stuck in the 1930s. Another of "Gosford Park's" many fine cast members, Helen Mirren, has a good chance as the painstakingly exacting housekeeper Mrs. Wilson, who makes sure the manor is run like a hand-tooled Swiss watch.
"Iris" switches back and forth between the young and rebellious Murdoch (earthy and youthfully confident Kate Winslett) and the older, suffering one (Dench). Because this is a movie of such fine performances, Winslett should get a nomination along with fellow cast members.
Finally, there's goodwill for "In the Bedroom's" Marisa Tomei, partly because of all the grief she's taken for winning an Oscar for the insubstantial "My Cousin Vinny." Insubstantial, "Bedroom" is clearly not.
Best director
These nominations tend to mirror the best-picture ones, so look for "Lord of the Rings' " Peter Jackson, "Beautiful Mind's" Ron Howard, "Moulin Rouge's" Baz Luhrmann and "Black Hawk Down's" Ridley Scott - the last two clearly are flashy director's movies.
I think 76-year-old Robert Altman, who never has won an Oscar, will get the fifth slot, even if the Directors Guild of America overlooked him. But "In the Bedroom's" Todd Field, an actor, did a confident, restrained job in his directorial debut. And "Memento's" Cristopher Nolan's work was impressive, too.
Best original screenplay
Julian Fellowes for "Gosford Park," Christopher Nolan for "Memento," Joel and Ethan Coen for "The Man Who Wasn't There," David Lynch for "Mulholland Drive," Wes Anderson and Owen Wilson for "The Royal Tenen-
baums."
Best adapted screenplay
Akiva Goldsman for "A Beautiful Mind"; Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens for "The Lord of the Rings"; Rob Festinger and Todd Field for "In the Bedroom"; Daniel Clowes and Terry Zwigoff for "Ghost World"; Scott McGehee and David Siegel for "The Deep End."
