Tolkien and Crowe only sure bets for nominations
NineMsn

After weeks of frenzied speculation, manoeuvring and costly advertising blitzes, Hollywood's Oscar season is set to climax with the announcement of this year's Academy Award nominations.

A Beautiful Mind and fantasy flick The Lord of the Rings appear to be the front-runners in the hard-fought race to win Tinseltown's highest kudos, along with plush musical Moulin Rouge and family drama In the Bedroom.

But apart from the four films that have emerged as the strongest contenders for the 2002 Oscars, the pundits are still battling to predict which of the 244 other hopefuls might make the coveted nominations list.

"The only sure favourites for multiple nominations are A Beautiful Mind and Lord of the Rings," said Los Angeles Times film critic Richard Natale.

"Moulin Rouge and In the Bedroom come in next, but after that the line-up becomes far more murky," he said.

The four films have all been enormous critical and box office successes and have also done well at many of the dizzying welter of Hollywood awards ceremonies that lead up to the Oscar nominations.

Amid the uncertainty and under growing pressure for their films to perform, movie studios have bombarded the trade press with millions of dollars' worth of glossy ads, touting their pictures under the banner "For your consideration".

Of the 248 films eligible for nomination in 24 categories, only 112 will win nominations - which not only boost the box office performance of the high-budget pictures but can also propel the nominees to global stardom.

"This year has been very different from other years in that any Oscar favourites have been very slow to emerge from a very wide open and varied field," said Tim Gray of Daily Variety magazine. "It's been much more exciting."

Psycho-drama A Beautiful Mind will go up against the hobbits and ringwraiths of the $US270 million ($A534.12 million) film version of JRR Tolkien's The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring for the most nominations, pundits said.

They will be joined by Moulin Rouge, Australian director Baz Luhrmann's attempt to revive the Hollywood musicals of old, starring Nicole Kidman, and low-budget family drama In The Bedroom.

Other hopefuls vying for nods include 1930s murder mystery satire Gosford Park, acclaimed Somali-based combat thriller Black Hawk Down, southern US racial drama Monster's Ball and drama Memento.

Some 5,739 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences were eligible to cast their ballots - closed last week - for the nominees for the cinema industry's most prized honour, the golden Oscar statuette.

The clear front-runners for nominations in the top acting categories are Russell Crowe, for his role as schizophrenic maths genius John Nash in A Beautiful Mind, and Sissy Spacek, for her portrayal of a distraught housewife in In The Bedroom."

Each star already has an Oscar at home - Crowe for last year's winner, Gladiator, and Spacek for Coal Miner's Daughter in 1980 - and both have been repeatedly recognised in industry kudos this year.

In The Bedroom, the tense tale of a middle-aged couple's battle to survive following the murder of their son, could also spawn another nominee: actor Tom Wilkinson, for his role as Spacek's husband.

Other hopefuls include Denzel Washington, for his role as a crooked cop in Training Day, and Gene Hackman, for his portrayal of an outcast father in The Royal Tenenbaums.

Trailing Spacek in the best actress category are Nicole Kidman for Moulin Rouge, Halle Berry for Monster's Ball and Briton Dame Judi Dench for Iris, the story of novelist Iris Murdoch.

Among the foreign-film contenders are France's Amelie and Bosnia's No Man's Land, while a new animation category is likely to feature Shrek and Monsters, Inc.

Noted critic Tom O'Neil, the author of several books on the Oscars, said he expected The Lord of the Rings to pick up the most nods this year, followed by A Beautiful Mind, but warned that there could still be surprises.

"While Mind is likely to clean up in the major categories, Lord of the Rings is aiming to beat the all-time record for nominations: 14 (held by Titanic and 1950's All about Eve)," he said.

Yes, it's Oscar season. Let the sniping begin
The Beacon Journal

The catcalls will go out Tuesday, when nominations for the 74th annual Academy Awards are announced to great fanfare, overanalysis (this story is no exception) and accusations that Miramax may have bought nods with its aggressive marketing campaigns.

But 20th Century Fox may be the more obvious aggressor this year as it mounts an extensive campaign for the thoroughly original and enjoyable Moulin Rouge.

And Halle Berry, riding a crest of nominations from other groups, including the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes), Screen Actors Guild and American Film Institute, hit the national TV circuit recently with a high-profile interview with the queen of afternoon chat, Oprah Winfrey, to gather momentum for her role in Monster's Ball.

Come Tuesday, some will scream that they were robbed (and each year the likelihood of that grows). I still cringe over the snubbing of Almost Famous last year. I predicted it would get a best picture nod; it didn't.

But I shall valiantly try once again with these predictions:

Best picture
Locks for nominations: A Beautiful Mind, In the Bedroom and Lord of the Rings.
Possibilities: Blackhawk Down, Gosford Park and Moulin Rouge.
Shots in the dark: The Others, A.I.: Artificial Intelligence and Monster's Ball.
Three horses have been in place since the holiday movie season stormed through. But the fight for the last two nominations could go several ways. Blackhawk Down from Ridley Scott, director of last year's best picture Gladiator, has won critical acclaim and has raked in box office bucks. Moulin Rouge has the benefit of copping a Golden Globe last month for best musical or comedy. That leaves Monster's Ball out.

Director
Locks for nominations: Peter Jackson (Lord of the Rings) and Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind).
Possibilities: Ridley Scott (Blackhawk Down), Baz Luhrmann (Moulin Rouge), David Lynch (Mulholland Drive) and Robert Altman (Gosford Park).
Shots in the dark: Todd Field (In the Bedroom) and Steven Spielberg (A.I. Artificial Intelligence). Scott is a good possibility simply because it's a rarity to pass up the director when his film receives a nod for best picture. And Luhrmann will get the nomination because Moulin Rouge looked, felt and played like an original.

Actor Locks for nominations: Russell Crowe (A Beautiful Mind), Denzel Washington (Training Day) and Gene Hackman (The Royal Tenenbaums).
Possibilities: Tom Wilkinson (In the Bedroom), Kevin Kline (Life as a House), Billy Bob Thornton (The Man Who Wasn't There or Monster's Ball) and Will Smith (Ali).
Shot in the dark: Sean Penn (I Am Sam). Wilkinson gives an extraordinary performance in In the Bedroom and should ride that momentum to some degree of recognition. The last nomination will be the trickiest as this is the strongest of any Oscar category this year. You'd think that Smith would get it for a searing portrayal of Muhammad Ali, but the Screen Actors Guild's snub in its nominations put a damper on that. By the same token, SAG's nomination of Kevin Kline in this category bolsters his hopes. Thornton may hurt his chances simply because he gave two sterling performances in two acclaimed films. But he should get that final nod.

Actress
Locks for nominations: Halle Berry (Monster's Ball), Judi Dench (Iris) and Sissy Spacek (In the Bedroom).
Possibilities: Nicole Kidman (Moulin Rouge, The Others), Naomi Watts (Mulholland Drive) and Renee Zellweger (Bridget Jones's Diary). Odds are Kidman will grab a nomination for either Moulin Rouge or The Others, roles that show how diverse her talents are. Look for Zellweger's turn as the frumpy Bridget Jones to fill the last slot.

Supporting actor
Locks for nominations: Jim Broadbent (Iris) and Ben Kingsley (Sexy Beast).
Possibilities: Steve Buscemi, (Ghost World), Haydn Christensen (Life as a House), Jon Voigt (Ali) and Ethan Hawke (Training Day).
Shots in the dark: Jude Law (A.I. Artificial Intelligence) and Ian McKellen (Lord of the Rings). Voigt proved once again that he's one of the most talented and versatile actors in Hollywood with a nearly perfect portrayal of sportscasting icon Howard Cosell. Look for newcomer Christensen to grab the last nomination. His turn as an angry, bitter son matched his screen father Kevin Kline note for note. Don't think George Lucas won't be rooting for the guy, either; Christensen plays Darth Vader in Star Wars -- Episode II: Attack of the Clones this spring.

Supporting actress
Locks for nominations: Jennifer Connelly (A Beautiful Mind), Helen Mirren (Gosford Park), Maggie Smith (Gosford Park) and Kate Winslet (Iris).
Possibilities: Marisa Tomei (In the Bedroom) and Cate Blanchett (Bandits or The Shipping News). The nomination probably will go to Tomei because of the momentum for In the Bedroom.

Let the games begin.

Mock Tolkien trial
Interest Alert

YPSILANTI, Mich., Feb. 8 (UPI) -- It was, arguably, the movie of the year based on the literary work of the century. Ave Maria College, a four-year Catholic liberal arts school near Ann Arbor, Michigan, used Thursday night the first of the Peter Jackson films based on Tokien's "The Lord of the Rings" trilogy to spin off an engaging mock trail that sought to prosecute the Australian director for "the desecration of The Lord of the Rings."

At debate for the Tolkien fans at the college was whether the film turned the fantasy epic by the late Catholic author into a Hollywood adventure flick. "Like most fans of Tolkien, when I heard there were films being produced on the trilogy, my first reaction was fear," said Joseph Pearce, the author of "Tolkien: Man and Myth," and most recently, "Tolkien a Celebration: Collected Writing on a Literary Legacy," who defended the Jackson movie at the mock trail.

"But it was a great relief as the film unfolded that Peter Jackson has made a real effort to be true to the text and even to bring in the spiritual dimension that was so central to Tolkien's understanding of myth," Pearce added.

Acting as prosecutor, AMC professor of literature Henry Russell, Ph.D., recited the film's failures - an elaborate list that mocked "Arwen Schwartzeneggar" and criticized "a Galadriel who must have stuck her finger in a light socket." After the attorneys and the audience argued both sides of the case, the jury of 12 AMC students sided with Pearce and found the Australian director "not guilty."

"It disturbs me greatly that, after these charges were brought against him, Peter Jackson saw fit to flee to Australia, and Australia refuses to extradite him, " complained Al Kresta as he opened the mock trail spoofing a prosecutorial judge. Kresta is a Catholic radio talk show host who hosts "Kresta in the Afternoon" on Ave Maria Radio. Almost disappearing underneath a huge white wig, Kresta never let his crusty demeanor crack, expressing disappointment, after the verdict, that he wouldn't be able to sentence anyone.

Russell targeted the casting and acting of Elijah Wood, Liv Tyler and Viggo Mortensen, who played the key characters of Frodo, Arwen and Aragorn. Wood played an "immature, unformed" character who he said was not credible as the hero "called to cruelly sacrifice everything for a cosmic drama he does not fully understand."

He also criticized Mortensen's Aragorn. "This great hero who is called to lead the world and wage war against evil is shown dithering about whether or not he can be king," he argued.

Pearce countered that Russell's standard was too high, and that no concession was granted for essential differences between literature and film. "The book is brilliant, it is a work of art considered to be the greatest of the century. Anyone trying to produce a film from it would need a great deal of courage," he said.

As for Russell's criticism of the attempts by Hollywood actors to portray the trilogy's heroes and heroines, Pearce said his colleague's standards were too high.

"When we are compared, in a court higher and more esteemed that this one, to the saints of God I am afraid we may find that, by comparison, we are more like these creations of Peter Jackson."

Who'll get the nods?
Sympatico

LOS ANGELES - The emotional impact of Sept. 11 should weigh heavily on Oscar nominations and subsequently on Oscar winners at the March 24 Academy Awards extravaganza. Deciding how it will translate is another matter.

Expect movies and performances on the serious side to be favoured, with the possible exception of Shrek, which stands alone, and should be honoured accordingly.

One thing seems certain: Jim Carrey will again be snubbed, this time for his overly sentimental performance in The Majestic. Ignoring Carrey is becoming a tradition that all 5,600 Academy members seem to enjoy.

That said, here are my picks for this year's nominees.

Best Picture:
A Beautiful Mind, a beautiful Hollywood against-all-odds yarn.
Black Hawk Down, America at war, losing the battle but winning on the bravery front.
Ali, a stylish all-is-forgiven profile of the greatest there ever was.
In The Bedroom, a domestic disturbance with outstanding performances.
The Lord of the Rings, the first episode presented with a rousing eye for fantasy detail.

Best Actress:
Sissy Spacek (In The Bedroom), mesmerizing as the angry mother.
Judy Dench (Iris), a showcase for her outstanding talents as a writer on the verge of madness
Nicole Kidman (Moulin Rouge, The Others), sympathy for being jilted by Tom Cruise gets her a nod of approval.
Audrey Tautou (Amelie), sweeter than sweet, the new millennium's Audrey Hepburn.
Halle Berry (Monster's Ball), one of Hollywood's own grows up to be an actress as a grieving mom.

Best Actor:
Russell Crowe (A Beautiful Mind), a sure thing as a geeky brain gone fuzzy.
Denzel Washington (Training Day), his first nasty role, nastier than expected.
Will Smith (Ali), effort counts in large amounts.
Tom Wilkinson (In The Bedroom), an intelligent performance from one of The Fully Monty men.
Gene Hackman (The Royal Tenenbaums), a surprise comic performance should impress enough.

Best Supporting Actress:
Jennifer Connolly (A Beautiful Mind), sturdy, strong and steady as the loyal wife.
Maggie Smith (Gosford Park), superb and then some.
Judi Dench (The Shipping News), her mutli-faceted abilities revealed.
Anjelica Huston (The Royal Tenenbaums), amusing parlour performance, a nice change of pace.
Marisa Tomei (In The Bedroom), a comeback tale, Oscar needs at least one per year.

Best Supporting Actor:
Ben Kingsley (Sexy Beast), truly evil, he put the 'ug' in thug.
Jon Voight (Ali), more than an imitation as Ali's sidekick sportscaster, Howard The Mouth That Bored.
Jim Broadbent (Iris), defining tolerance as an understanding hubby.
Ewan McGregor (Black Hawk Down), the human face in an inhuman battle.
Jude Law (A.I.), smooth as silk in robot land.

Best Director:
Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind), a crafstman who refused to be ignored.
Michael Mann (Ali), bravely going where few would dare to go.
Ridley Scott (Black Hawk Down), riveting and revealing expose of soldier's conceit.
Todd Field (In The Bedroom), encouraged best ensemble this year.
Peter Jackson (The Lord Of The Rings), combined wit, wisdom and special effects into an epic film.