Oscar Bravo

As it was for the sage of Baker Street, so it is with the Academy Awards 2002. For, despite (or perhaps because of) this being an especially weak year for the kinds of films Oscar voters favour, it is easier than usual to discern what the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is likely to do when it announces its nominees on February 12.

An informal survey of veteran Oscar-watchers reveals surprising near-unanimity as to what those choices might be.

Best Picture

This category, always the subject of intense interest, seems especially clear. Two films are destined to be nominated and, more than that, likely to fight it out for the award. One is A Beautiful Mind, a Ron Howard-directed look at what happens when a genius goes mad; and the other is Peter Jackson's The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, the co-front-runner status of which was enhanced by a victory at the recent American Film Institute awards.

Two other quite different films also seem likely for nomination.

In the Bedroom, the kind of intense adult drama the studios seem to have lost the knack for, would have been a long shot in any other year, but not this one. Similarly, Black Hawk Down, despite its violence, benefits not only from Ridley Scott's panoramic direction, but also from a national mood in the US that is as pro-military as it's been in quite some time.

As for the fifth slot, one of two films seems likely to fill it. Moulin Rouge certainly has its passionate advocates, but it has no lack of detractors, either. Also on the rise is Robert Altman's amusing Gosford Park, which has been gradually gaining adherents.

More remotely possible are Michael Mann's Ali and Shrek, which would have been highly likely in another year, but the existence of a first-time feature animation Oscar may crimp its chances. As for David Lynch's Mulholland Drive, its numerous critics' awards will likely not go far enough towards making it palatable to the academy membership.

The other categories should break down as follows:

Best Director

The voters seem poised to follow the best picture pattern, but only to a point. Scott's skill in Black Hawk Down will be difficult to resist, as should the scope of what Jackson accomplished with the J.R.R. Tolkien novel. Also likely are industry veteran Howard and the even more veteran Altman. The fifth slot will be an all-out tussle among three respected directors whose films might not be in the best picture mix: Mann for Ali, Baz Luhrmann for Moulin Rouge and Lynch for Mulholland Drive.

Best Actor

This may be the first year with two black best actor nominees, Denzel Washington for Training Day and the well-liked Will Smith for his anti-charismatic performance in Ali. Two other slots will likely go to non-American actors, Tom Wilkinson for In the Bedroom and Russell Crowe, West Virginia accent and all, for A Beautiful Mind. The fifth slot could be Gene Hackman for The Royal Tenenbaums or Billy Bob Thornton in Monster's Ball, with Sean Penn in I Am Sam a more distant possibility.

Best Actress

The same names come up again and again in this category: Sissy Spacek for In the Bedroom, Nicole Kidman for The Others (not Moulin Rouge), Judi Dench for Iris, Halle Berry for Monster's Ball and, should enough people manage to see the film, the remarkable Tilda Swinton for The Deep End. If Swinton doesn't get enough votes, Renée Zellweger has a shot for Bridget Jones's Diary. Naomi Watts has won a number of critics' awards for Mulholland Drive and she could break through here as well.

Best Supporting Actor

This is where things get a little tricky. The only sure bets seem to be Ben Kingsley as the anti-Gandhi in Sexy Beast and Jim Broadbent as Dench's partner in Iris. There will likely be some nominations for Lord of the Rings, with Ian McKellen's wizardly Gandalf and Viggo Mortensen's magnetic Aragorn the strongest contenders. Similarly, a nomination should come out of Ali, either Jamie Foxx's exuberant Bundini Brown or Jon Voight's grave Howard Cosell. And, if the films get seen, Brian Cox could be up for L.I.E., Steve Buscemi for Ghost World or Tony Shalhoub for The Man Who Wasn't There.

Supporting Actress

As usual, a lot of British faces will be visible, led by Maggie Smith, irresistible in Gosford Park. Helen Mirren might also get a nod for that film, although she had a better role in the regrettably little seen Last Orders. Kate Winslet is possible as the younger Murdoch in Iris, as is Cate Blanchett, who was hard to miss in The Shipping News. The two likely American contenders are Jennifer Connelly for A Beautiful Mind and Marisa Tomei, reinventing herself for In the Bedroom.

Adapted Screenplay

A category with considerable riches this time around, from In the Bedroom, taken from a short story, to the children's book-based Shrek, the comic book-based Ghost World and the play-based Lantana. Other potential nominees include Lord of the Rings, Iris, Black Hawk Down (although the film doesn't have a "written" feel), Bridget Jones's Diary, The Shipping News and A Beautiful Mind (although the film veered considerably from the book's nonfiction story). Also worthy, but perhaps too little seen, is The Deep End, whose core novel, The Blank Wall, was made into the Max Ophüls-directed The Reckless Moment 50 years ago.

Original Screenplay